Those wacky media folks are at it again

[MikeP]

I feel strongly both ways re this issue; I've been impressed with some aspects of E cars and unimpressed with others.

But frankly, E-cars do seem the way to go - everything about an electric motor seems better than an internal combustion model as far as actual operation. Obviously the issue is batteries - their weight/lifespan. From a philosophical viewpoint is there really any major difference between e-cars replacing gas/diesel cars and cars replacing horses 100+ years ago. Initially, cars weren't really an improvement but "hardheads" and initial adopters kept at it...

 

[rsmith]

Since most powerplants are only 30-45% efficient, how does it make sence to lose 65-70% of the available BTU's before you plug your car in????? Our electric costs have skyrocked in the last year the last thing I would want is another large electric power draw. The electricty is not free and with the EPA shutting down coal fired plants the rates can only go up.

 

[MikeP]

That's a good question and is probably the critical item for long term. But one thing to consider is that elec generation will likely become more efficient since there is no conceivable way to replace electricity with something else. Therefore, there is an inherent benefit to improving the efficiency of elec generation since we will always need it. Gas/Diesel engines, it seems to me, are not going to get dramatically better than they are now and I see them as near or at their peak.

So what I see here is that perhaps TODAY an elec car may not be as "efficient" overall as gas car, due to the cost of elec - at least is some areas. But I think that is going to change over time. A current gas engine is only about 30% efficient, Diesels can get up to 50%. Large elec motors are up to 96% efficient. That's a big efficiency advantage that leaves a lot of room for INefficiency in power generation. The cost of elec, as noted, is high in some areas but is the added cost of the elec to charge a car as high as the price of gas to do the same thing? Plus, the e-car has very little of the maint required in a gas/diesel car.

Of course, the problem remains re range/time to charge batts, etc. Seems that another major improvement in that area will have to be made before e-cars can truly compete. From that aspect, the hybrid thing seems to be quite workable though it's anything but an elegant solution.

No, I have neither a elec or a hybrid. I have an old sporty car that did manage almost 23MPG on a 3000 mile cross country trip but more typically averages around 16 and sometimes around 14...

But I find the elec car thing very interesting.

 

[Genesis]

That's a good question and is probably the critical item for long term. But one thing to consider is that elec generation will likely become more efficient since there is no conceivable way to replace electricity with something else. Therefore, there is an inherent benefit to improving the efficiency of elec generation since we will always need it. Gas/Diesel engines, it seems to me, are not going to get dramatically better than they are now and I see them as near or at their peak.

Thermodynamics are just what they are. And the more transformations energy must go through before it's final use, the less efficient the process is end-to-end since there is no such thing as a free lunch and every transformation involves loss.

 

[SKYCHENEY]

Don't forget the costs that are associated with taxes or tax breaks. The government will not allow electric cars to stay on the roads without somehow collecting road tax. If you want a fair comparison, take away the tax rebate on the Volt and take away the road taxes on the fuels that the other cars burn.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

The most efficient fuel available today is natural gas. I worked an entire career for a natural gas pipeline company. Most of our company vehicles were natural gas powered. There was no way to store that stuff to get farther than 30 miles down the road. Good fuel yes, but not practical for automotive use. The losses in getting energy from its source to the end use is important. Natural gas is the clear winner here. The problem is storage for use.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

The mileage numbers quoted for the Volt are way off. They had no way to compare the Volt with regular cars so the just took a stab at it. Our Volt costs $15 to $17 per month for electricity. We charge it every night but it is not always depleated. We do use the car about 12,000 miles annualy and most of that is electric only. When we drive longer distances the generator will run after the first 50 miles. When that engine is running we get between 42 and 44 mpg. We paid $37,300 for the car including the rebate and 6% Michigan sales tax. I think that is about as economical as you can get for a car that is nice looking, comfortable, and handles as good as anything on the road. Many Volt buyers were Prius owners and all agree that the Volt is much more of a car that their Prius was.

 

[Boatsb]

"Many Volt buyers were Prius owners and all agree that the Volt is much more of a car that their Prius was."

Considering how few volts were sold how can use the descriptive "many"?

 

[MikeP]

Hmmm...Given the ACTUAL mileage/fuel costs that Maynard has posted, as opposed to some projection or computer-generated "data," it's hard to see how anyone can argue with the efficiency case. Whether it meets your other wants/needs/preferences is a different issue, but you can't run any gas car 1000 miles/month on 17 bucks/month for fuel.

If you can run it within it's electrical "range" it seems to be a far better deal...

 

[Genesis]

The problem is the amount of time it requires to amortize the additional $20,000 cost.

At 40mpg and $5/gal it's 160,000 miles, or about 12 years. Unfortunately the battery will not last that long and it's expensive to replace.

If the electric-primary vehicle was comparable in up-front cost with a gas or diesel vehicle it would make lots of sense. But it's not, and the battery pack is a consumable. Storage batteries have a service life issue that becomes a major factor in cost of ownership down the road; lithium-chemistry battery designs typically have a roughly 5 year life even if not cycled.

Leaving aside the bad acts related to GM the argument for the Volt just isn't there on a TCO basis except in certain very limited circumstances.

 

[hyperfishing]

Regular Ford Focus, first decent American small car IMO, gets 40 MPG, range of about 400 miles, and costs $20K. We just bought one and like it.

Electric Ford focus, costs $39K, has a range of 75 miles.

It is a no brainer folks. So are the natural gas powered trucks coming soon to a Ford dealership near you.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

Good point Genesis. I spent some time with the chief engineer for the Volt project. Their predictions are for a usefull life of 15 years except in extremly hot areas like Phoenix. That prediction is 12 years. What you are forgetting is that our battery is 100% warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles with no conditions and a new replacement.

I can't believe that guys that bown expensive boats and cars would make such big points about a 15k difference in original cost for an awesome car. Now, how moch does it cost to run those old Detroits?

 

[Mike36c]

Maynard, how does your Volt handle hot climates like south FL in the summer concerning air conditioning? My beef with hybrids is that the gas engine needs to run constantly to support A/C anyway plus hauling around a battery pack doesn't make much sense.

 

[rsmith]

Still , how can anyone compare costs based on an artificialy inflated oil price?

 

[Genesis]

Good point Genesis. I spent some time with the chief engineer for the Volt project. Their predictions are for a usefull life of 15 years except in extremly hot areas like Phoenix. That prediction is 12 years. What you are forgetting is that our battery is 100% warrantied for 8 years or 100,000 miles with no conditions and a new replacement.

There is not a snowball's chance in Hell that a lithium ion pack will have anything approaching nominal capacity in 8 years, say much less 12.

The chemistry on this is well-understood. Hybrid-electrics "get away with it" because the engine can start when the charge state is insufficient and the loss of capacity happens slowly enough that you don't notice it (much.) Plug-in electrics without an engine on board are another matter for obvious reasons.

I've been using lithium-chemistry batteries now for a very long time and so have most of you. They all lose 5-10% of capacity per year from the date of manufacture depending on the charge state during storage (full is NOT better!) and temperature (warmer is worse.) This is not avoidable; it is a matter of the chemistry used.

In addition typical Li-ion batteries have a cycle life of about 500 cycles (if cycled from near cut-off voltage to "full" and back.) If you only draw them down 50% you can get close to twice that many cycles but in fact all you've done is spread the total energy passage (storage and withdrawal) over more cycles -- the total amount of energy the battery can process during its life hasn't changed. In addition at that "used up" point capacity is down some 20-30% from new levels, which is typically where it starts to piss you off in common applications (e.g. laptops, cellphones, etc.) and also closely-approximates the "knee" point where deterioration-per-cycle begins to rapidly accelerate.

So battery pack life is determined by both cycles and time. In most applications time gets you first, although this may change with vehicles that are driven daily. In any event the idea of 12 year battery lifetimes is a pure fantasy with any chemistry I'm aware of that is available on today's market, or any that are in testing at the present time.

 

[Maynard Rupp]

Ah but Genisis....You haven't done you're homework about the Volt. To extend the battery life, GM only charges it to 80% of capacity and won't let it discharge below 20%. I think the chief engineer should have a good handle on the battery thing. If they are all wrong, as you suggest, I still have the 8 year or 100,000 mile warranty on our battery. That should buy me another 7 or 8 years after it fails. Let' see now, no additional battery cost for 15 years, about 3 oil changes in 15 years, no new brake pads as we almost never touch the brake pedal thanks to re-gen., 42 mpg after 50 mies electric, and the GM supplied 12 volt group 24 battery is an AGM. Now what can you find wrong with a Volt? These guys have really done a great job with this car. The GM,and American car hate is a huge factor. You wait until BMW comes out with their Voltec powered car. Voltec is the name that GM has given their complete electric drive unit. BMW is very close to an agreement with GM to buy these drive units. That should allow GM and American car haters to enjoy what we now have in our lowly Chevy. You and Sky would probably miss the need to constantly shift the car though; sorry no transmission on electric motor cars. You guys should try one before you do the hate thing. I know you would be impressed.

 

[Canuck Dennis]

The City of Vancouver in BC is intent on spending 800K of taxpayers $$ to install electric plug in stations in the city for electric cars, just another extension of the bailout of GM and the like....my 2c..

 

[rsmith]

The City of Vancouver in BC is intent on spending 800K of taxpayers $$ to install electric plug in stations in the city for electric cars, just another extension of the bailout of GM and the like....my 2c..

I saw something in one of the stim bills that mandated US gov buildings put in charging stations. Free electric for gov employees.

 

[Canuck Dennis]

It's insidious, creeping socialism,,,would be interesting to know all of the programs that are taxpayer funded either directly or indirectly and of course the cost, then have it published every day in the media..

 

[rsmith]

Here's an idea. Plug in at work, go home put in an inverter, and power the house from the car.